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True 3pt shooting % (part II)

ramizi

Rookie 2
So in part I: [URL="https://nbalivecommunity.com/threads/1152"]threads/1152[/url]
I have found that 90 Harvest Curry true 3pt shooting % is just under 71% (over 123 'perfect' shots)

This time I went on to test 90 overall Winter Magic Johnson.
Results are surprising to say the least!

Just reminding rules of engagement:
  • I played only LvL & SD
  • I only counted 'perfect shots', meaning +20 releases with a 'large' target area on the shooting meter
  • I shot 123 shots
  • My team overall is 89 (used to be 88 with Curry)

Magic shoots 96 out of 123 which makes 78%!:



So yes, 90 Magic shoots over 7% better than 90 Curry despite a lower 3pt rating (86 vs 89):


Why is that? I have no idea..
I can speculate:
  • Magic is taller?
  • Sample size is just too small?
  • My team overall improved by one point?
  • There was one "Content Update" between...
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edlllpt

Pro 1
one thing you didn't address; you played with overall advantage in all quarters with magic.

that helps (3pt stat in feedback can change) and i think it was not the case in your curry experiment.
 
Pretty interesting. Though Magic only made 9 more shots than Curry out of 123 attempts, that just proves they play the same as its not much of a difference. I've said this before, take any player with similar stats, same position, and with the same ovr and you will find they play almost exactly the same. A 3 point difference in 3point stats doesn't really amount to a noticeable difference in gameplay. This game is too basic.
 

Drowzy

Rookie 1
Yes your Team OVR improved by one point which is what matters most in accuracy of all your players, also this game is not advanced enough to work well with the player's stats, their ovr is what matters the most.
 

ramizi

Rookie 2
edlllpt, with Curry I've noted down the opponent overall on 8 quarters. I had the advantage in 6 of them.

Drowzy, I see your point about the overall increase but it seems odd that a player with -3 rating would shoot 7% better just because 1 point increase in overall, no?

I might do another run with 90 Curry just to neutralize the 88/89 thing.

JukeNukem1432, if what you say is right, then it is sad, because what the hell do we grind for man?

Anyway, other than 3pts shooting, Magic is much better in steals, blocks, dunking & rebounding which makes him my choice at the moment.
 

Drowzy

Rookie 1
edlllpt, with Curry I've noted down the opponent overall on 8 quarters. I had the advantage in 6 of them.

Drowzy, I see your point about the overall increase but it seems odd that a player with -3 rating would shoot 7% better just because 1 point increase in overall, no?

I might do another run with 90 Curry just to neutralize the 88/89 thing.

JukeNukem1432, if what you say is right, then it is sad, because what the hell do we grind for man?

Anyway, other than 3pts shooting, Magic is much better in steals, blocks, dunking & rebounding which makes him my choice at the moment.
no, not odd for this game.. I completely agree with JukeNukem, The game is too basic for those individual stats to matter as compared to ovr, same position and ovr play almost just the same...
 
@ramizi, it would be interesting if you could test out a different 90 PG with similar stats. I would bet the results would be very similar out of 123 shots. The only time I've found a noticeable difference in gameplay with players of the same ovr is when the differences in stats is significant.
 

ramizi

Rookie 2
@ramizi, it would be interesting if you could test out a different 90 PG with similar stats. I would bet the results would be very similar out of 123 shots. The only time I've found a noticeable difference in gameplay with players of the same ovr is when the differences in stats is significant.
I still have 90 Curry.
I'll make a few more runs with his card on my 89 team & update shortly.
 

ramizi

Rookie 2
All right,
I ran another 9 quarters with 90 Harvest Curry with my 89 overall (previous test was with 88 overall).
He shot 48 out of 62 which makes 77.4% (new quarters in purple):


@edlllpt, this time all 9 quarters vs an opponent with lower overall.

So what can I make of it?
  • @Drowzy & @JukeNukem1432 were correct: Team overall matters!
  • 3pts rating on the other hand does matters that much
  • To me, Magic is the better card because his steals, blocks, dunking & rebounding is better
  • Don't have the numbers, but I feel Magic also plays better on the AI

Cheers!
 

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Anatdoc

All-Star 2
To counteract.. if u have enuf high ovr players.. maybe try a pg with a lower 3 pt rating.. like smart or billups the new dragic etc.. and test the whole stats are immaterial theory..
According to me ovr is important.. but a 90 curry is going to hit more 3s than 87 lin assuming the ovr stays same..so i do believe the 3 pt stat matters but not over ovr..
 

ramizi

Rookie 2
To counteract.. if u have enuf high ovr players.. maybe try a pg with a lower 3 pt rating.. like smart or billups the new dragic etc.. and test the whole stats are immaterial theory..
According to me ovr is important.. but a 90 curry is going to hit more 3s than 87 lin assuming the ovr stays same..so i do believe the 3 pt stat matters but not over ovr..
Hmmm, 90 magic has 3 less ratings than 90 curry on the 3pt category.
I might do more players soon, but need a timeout now
 
Great effort, but it should also matter if the shot was open, contested or chalenged, right?

Cheers
I'm interested have you found any difference? Personally I've found no difference if I get an open, contested or challenged shot. I feel like 99% of the shots I take are challenged or contested even when the defender is nowhere close but they still go in with the same regularity as past seasons. I've made more contested and challenged shots than I have open shots so I feel like it really doesn't matter.
 

ramizi

Rookie 2
Great effort, but it should also matter if the shot was open, contested or chalenged, right?

Cheers
I'm interested have you found any difference? Personally I've found no difference if I get an open, contested or challenged shot. I feel like 99% of the shots I take are challenged or contested even when the defender is nowhere close but they still go in with the same regularity as past seasons. I've made more contested and challenged shots than I have open shots so I feel like it really doesn't matter.
Thanks @Altavilla.
I went on this journey testing different is Curry's shooting from Magic's.
As they have 89 vs 86 3pts rating i was expected Curry to shoot better!
To isolate 'statistical noise' I only counted what I defined as: 'perfect shots', meaning +20 releases with a 'large' target area on the shooting.

In reality I discovered 1) they shoot quite the same 2) Team overall had an impact of more than 5% in shots %

Some people have commented about the text in the feedback (open/contested/challenged) also being a factor.
I have not tested it.
It is indeed a interesting thing to test: is shots % impacted by open/contested/challenged status.
Maybe I'll do that sometime, maybe someone would help with that...

For me as a F2P the original question is more critical, as it determines the strategy for a team buildup:
One would better invest in higher overall rather than higher 3pts rating for individual cards.

Makes sense?
 

Altavilla

Pro 1
Great effort, but it should also matter if the shot was open, contested or chalenged, right?

Cheers
I'm interested have you found any difference? Personally I've found no difference if I get an open, contested or challenged shot. I feel like 99% of the shots I take are challenged or contested even when the defender is nowhere close but they still go in with the same regularity as past seasons. I've made more contested and challenged shots than I have open shots so I feel like it really doesn't matter.
Thanks @Altavilla.
I went on this journey testing different is Curry's shooting from Magic's.
As they have 89 vs 86 3pts rating i was expected Curry to shoot better!
To isolate 'statistical noise' I only counted what I defined as: 'perfect shots', meaning +20 releases with a 'large' target area on the shooting.

In reality I discovered 1) they shoot quite the same 2) Team overall had an impact of more than 5% in shots %

Some people have commented about the text in the feedback (open/contested/challenged) also being a factor.
I have not tested it.
It is indeed a interesting thing to test: is shots % impacted by open/contested/challenged status.
Maybe I'll do that sometime, maybe someone would help with that...

For me as a F2P the original question is more critical, as it determines the strategy for a team buildup:
One would better invest in higher overall rather than higher 3pts rating for individual cards.

Makes sense?
Makes perfect sense and you're probably right. But in the end it should come down to whatever player you like best to play with. (I have to remind myself of that sometimes.)

@Juke: I don't know. I certainly have missed more open shots than I expected so... something is off.
 

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